Monday, February 16, 2009
Typewriter Monkeys?
I just read that PECOTA's team-by-team predictions were off by an average of 8.5 wins per team for 2008. I just did a little math, and found out that if I had predicted each team to go 81-81 last year, the average win total error margin would be about 9.3. That average, picking 81-81 over the last four seasons, goes to right around 8.5.
So I guess I'll issue the 81-81 challenge to PECOTA this year. Granted, they had a down year last year, but hey, I could take a few teams and add a few wins or losses. Like, I could give the Red Sox and Yanks and Cubs 85 wins, give the Nationals 75, just to improve myself a little. Check back on October 4th, we'll see how it worked out.
So I guess I'll issue the 81-81 challenge to PECOTA this year. Granted, they had a down year last year, but hey, I could take a few teams and add a few wins or losses. Like, I could give the Red Sox and Yanks and Cubs 85 wins, give the Nationals 75, just to improve myself a little. Check back on October 4th, we'll see how it worked out.
Comments:
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That 8.5 number for PECOTA in '08 is only listed on one site. But it is on their Wiki page, so I assume if it was incorrect they would've corrected it by now.
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