Monday, February 16, 2009

Typewriter Monkeys?

I just read that PECOTA's team-by-team predictions were off by an average of 8.5 wins per team for 2008. I just did a little math, and found out that if I had predicted each team to go 81-81 last year, the average win total error margin would be about 9.3. That average, picking 81-81 over the last four seasons, goes to right around 8.5.

So I guess I'll issue the 81-81 challenge to PECOTA this year. Granted, they had a down year last year, but hey, I could take a few teams and add a few wins or losses. Like, I could give the Red Sox and Yanks and Cubs 85 wins, give the Nationals 75, just to improve myself a little. Check back on October 4th, we'll see how it worked out.

That 8.5 number for PECOTA in '08 is only listed on one site. But it is on their Wiki page, so I assume if it was incorrect they would've corrected it by now.

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Location: Rhode Island, United States