Monday, July 25, 2011

The Numbers The Illuminati Doesn't Want You To See!

We're 8.5 games up on the second-place wild card team (Angels) with 63 games left. (10 in the loss column.) Even if they play the rest of the season at around the percentage we've been playing till now, all we'd have to do is play .500 the rest of the way to beat them. Not that I needed to do any math to figure this out, but, there's a very good chance the Red Sox will be playing in October.

(Funny how the me-me-media comes up with all these stats proving that a 2-10 team can't possibly win anything, but now that there's a very good possibility we're going to the playoffs, they say nothing. Why aren't they writing articles about how Red Sox fans everywhere have their feet on solid ground and are in an extreme state of un-panic? Come on, guys, tell me how often a team's blown a 10-game lead with 63 to play.)

July 25th in Red Sox vs. Royals history:

One game. 1989. Wade Boggs has three doubles and a triple in the 10-0 rout at Fenway. Mike Boddicker throws a 9-hit shutout, and every Socker in the starting lineup gets at least one hit and scores at least one run.

In the all-time series (the Royals started play in 1969), Kansas City has been ahead of us since 1980, when they took a 66-65 lead on May 4th. They extended their lead to 29 games in '97/'98, but the Sox have been storming back ever since. We've cut it to just 2 games, 212 to 210. We've got eight games against them this year, starting tonight at 7:10 at Fenway. This could be the year we finally tie and/or catch them after three decades. And if we score two runs tonight, that will be 2,000 all-time vs. the Royals.

I do love your math!
"Come on, guys, tell me how often a team's blown a 10-game lead with 63 to play"

Well, as you are of course aware, the '78 team blew a 9 game lead with 46 games left.

The '51 Dodgers blew a 13 game lead with 47 left, and a 10.5 game lead with 43 left to play.

The '95 Angels blew a 10.5 game lead with 59 left.

The '69 Cubs blew a 9 game lead with 42 left...and finished 8 games out.

The '07 Mets somehow blew a 7 game lead with only 17 games left.

And the '64 Phillies blew a 6.5 game lead with only 12 left...probably the worst of them all.

Those are the ones I remember; probably missed a couple. But I agree this Sox team is highly unlikely to miss the postseason; they're clearly the best team in the AL, if not all of baseball, and they have considerable depth. The one immedate concern I see is the health of Buchholz, who doesn't seem to be making significant progress. But that's much more of an October issue, not something that's likely to keep them from getting there.
That was my point, that it's not common. When it does, it's famous. That doesn't make it more likely to happen.

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