Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Words
1. Papi felt something in his hand last night, hopefully it just magically goes away. Joba's injury doesn't sound like a big deal, but if he is out, they'd be in much worse shape than we'd be if Papi goes down. Their pitching staff would be Pettitte, Mussina...and not much else.
2. I continue to be completely right on the Wily Mo/Bronson trade. Let's compare their numbers:
Wily Mo (out for year): AB-195, H-40, HR-2, RBI-10, BB-10, K-48, AVG-.205, OBP-.243, SLG-.267, OPS-.510
Bronson: AB-41, H-9, HR-1, RBI-4, BB-4, K-12, AVG-.220, OBP-.289, SLG-.341, OPS-.630
That's right, Bronson has higher hitting numbers, a higher HR rate, a higher RBI rate, and a better walk to strikeout ratio. Even if you say, "Well, it's close...." you should remember that Bronson is a pitcher.
3. Sunday X-word stuff: First one of the month, so it was an easy one. I liked the theme, where each long answer had a word or words followed by the same word with the first letter taken off. So one clue was "Will the ___ ___ his long sermon?" Answer: REVERENDEVEREND (reverend ever end). Nice job, Shortz. But once you get one, you're gonna quickly get the others. Did it in about 55 minutes, had four or five letters wrong.
2. I continue to be completely right on the Wily Mo/Bronson trade. Let's compare their numbers:
Wily Mo (out for year): AB-195, H-40, HR-2, RBI-10, BB-10, K-48, AVG-.205, OBP-.243, SLG-.267, OPS-.510
Bronson: AB-41, H-9, HR-1, RBI-4, BB-4, K-12, AVG-.220, OBP-.289, SLG-.341, OPS-.630
That's right, Bronson has higher hitting numbers, a higher HR rate, a higher RBI rate, and a better walk to strikeout ratio. Even if you say, "Well, it's close...." you should remember that Bronson is a pitcher.
3. Sunday X-word stuff: First one of the month, so it was an easy one. I liked the theme, where each long answer had a word or words followed by the same word with the first letter taken off. So one clue was "Will the ___ ___ his long sermon?" Answer: REVERENDEVEREND (reverend ever end). Nice job, Shortz. But once you get one, you're gonna quickly get the others. Did it in about 55 minutes, had four or five letters wrong.
Comments:
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Of course, 41 Abs is the ultimate small (and therefore meaningless) sample size. And Bronson is being paid to pitch, not hit, and on that front he's pretty lousy right now, with a 5.55 era pitching in an easy division in an easy league. It's true that Wily Mo was a big bust for the Sox, but on the other hand, they're not missing Arroyo at all. But I'm glad to see that you're looking beyond batting average to OB% and SLG%.
Can I tout myself as the winner of the JD Drew v Trot Nixon debate? :)
Can I tout myself as the winner of the JD Drew v Trot Nixon debate? :)
Bronson had a shitty start this year, he's getting better. I still say we could have used his innings these last few years.
But do you see my point that, small sample size or not, the fact that we're comparing Wily Mo's hitting stats to that of a pitcher (and that the pitcher is winning!) means he's a total bust? Maybe he'll pull a Carlos Pena, come back from the surgery and be a star. It can be a race between him and Hansen to see who reaches his potential first..
I have never bad-mouthed OBP or SLG, just the made-up stats like the ones that involve replacement players. And OPS is useful if you know what it means, but I still say you can't add two averages together unless both have the same denominator. You can't say "I buy Chan presents for 50% of his birthdays and 50% of Christmases, so I give gifts at a 100% rate." And I think they did come up with a different method of adding the two averages to make it more realistic, but people mainly just use OPS and OPS+. I think the OPS number would be easier to follow if they at least took the average of the two averages instead of adding them together.
But do you see my point that, small sample size or not, the fact that we're comparing Wily Mo's hitting stats to that of a pitcher (and that the pitcher is winning!) means he's a total bust? Maybe he'll pull a Carlos Pena, come back from the surgery and be a star. It can be a race between him and Hansen to see who reaches his potential first..
I have never bad-mouthed OBP or SLG, just the made-up stats like the ones that involve replacement players. And OPS is useful if you know what it means, but I still say you can't add two averages together unless both have the same denominator. You can't say "I buy Chan presents for 50% of his birthdays and 50% of Christmases, so I give gifts at a 100% rate." And I think they did come up with a different method of adding the two averages to make it more realistic, but people mainly just use OPS and OPS+. I think the OPS number would be easier to follow if they at least took the average of the two averages instead of adding them together.
And I will clarify again that I love stats and have since I was about 3 years old. Just not ones people came up with because they were thinking too hard. It's hinky,...
The way I see it is: Murray Chass is too stupid for some of these stats. I'm too smart for them. Ha.
The way I see it is: Murray Chass is too stupid for some of these stats. I'm too smart for them. Ha.
Yes, as I said in my comment above, I agree with you that Wily Mo was a bust. What I disagree on is the Sox missing Bronson. The trade was a slight negative in '06, but was far from being the reason the Sox didn't make the postseason. They won the WS last year, so by definition they didn't miss him....hell the Gagne trade was a far bigger trainwreck, and even that didn't derail them (pardon the pun). And this year, even with Schilling out and Beckett disappointing and Buchholz pitching very poorly, it's hard to argue that Arroyo would have added value even as a 5th starter, given that he's gotten knocked around in the NL Central.
Theo took a gamble a few years ago on Wily Mo's potential; he could afford to, since he was dealing from pitching depth. It didn't work out, but every now and then you have to take a flier on someone with a high ceiling. I think I miss David Murphy a lot more than Bronson.
Theo took a gamble a few years ago on Wily Mo's potential; he could afford to, since he was dealing from pitching depth. It didn't work out, but every now and then you have to take a flier on someone with a high ceiling. I think I miss David Murphy a lot more than Bronson.
Wily Mo - a perrenial pinch-hitter IMO, no big loss, but at the time I think we needed a bench hitter more than another starter. I thought it was a decent move at the time, but later changed my mind. I just think Arroyo's more of a starter than a pen guy and we didn't need him to be a starter anymore. True, in hindsight, when Wells went bust and Snyder didn't pan out like hoped we kinda missed him, but you never know when you make the deal. And Wily did hit over 300 that year.
But you're obviously right about the long term comparison. Just not sure that every trade is or should be made for the long term.
I don't get NY Times, but I buy the NYT Puzzle books and always get the Sunday only books, not the general versions. I'm on one called Sunday's Best right now. Clue of the day - 4-letter word, a company name that is also pig-latin for an insect. :)
Oh and Cat's back in the hospital - lung issues. We may have to cancel our trip to Boston this month :(
But you're obviously right about the long term comparison. Just not sure that every trade is or should be made for the long term.
I don't get NY Times, but I buy the NYT Puzzle books and always get the Sunday only books, not the general versions. I'm on one called Sunday's Best right now. Clue of the day - 4-letter word, a company name that is also pig-latin for an insect. :)
Oh and Cat's back in the hospital - lung issues. We may have to cancel our trip to Boston this month :(
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