Thursday, May 29, 2008

What Would You Do?

For my girlfriend's birthday last November, my dad got her the gift of future betting. Knowing what a big Celtics fan she is, he bet on them to win the NBA championship, and if they win, she gets the dough. (Note: this was all done in a perfectly legal manner.) He was able to get great odds, so she stands to win 400 merlonis.

Now the Celts are a win away from going to The Finals. All along I've thought that if they get there, Kim is in great shape, because all she'd have to do is bet some money on the other team to be guaranteed to come away with some money. Think of it this way: As it stands now, if they win, she gets 400, if they don't, she gets nothing, but she doesn't lose anything. If she bets, say, a hundred bucks on the other team (assuming they make the finals), then she'd stand to win 300 if the Celts win, but in case they lose, she'd still get 100.

She has said from the beginning that she won't do it though. Why? Because of the key phrase "bet on the other team." She doesn't want to bet against her team. Especially if they're playing the Lakers. I try to explain to her that she's not betting on the other team, she's just betting less on her own team. As long as your bet on the other team is half the amount you stand to win or less, that still means you root for your own team. The way I see it, she can take, as soon as the Celts are in The Finals, any amount of money she wants up to 200 dollars, and put that much in her pocket. If her team wins, she gets even more. I don't think of that as "betting on the other team." If you were in the same situation with the Red Sox, only the amount was 2 million dollars, would you do Kim's 2 million or nothing method? Or would you guarantee yourself up to a million dollars regardless of the outcome? What if it were an ALCS against the Yanks? What would you do?

Regardless of this particular possible bet--doesn't it seem like she should be able to parlay this into a huge score? I have to rack my brain... I mean, for her to win, the Celts don't need to cover any spreads, they just have to go all the way. So you could put 200 on the Lakers in game 7, if they're the underdog, and if they cover but lose, you'd win both bets.

Even though I think it would be against my own code of personal ethics, I also think it would be bad luck.

Bad luck!
I would bet double on my team....
Okay, I brought that up with her tonight, saying, Okay, take 200 and bet that on the Celtics--if you're into this risk/reward thing, risk some more (actually, as it is, she hasn't risked anything yet) and win a bundle! She won't do it. I think her main thing is that she just doesn't gamble, whereas I was taken to Atlantic City for vacation as a kid...winter and summer.
You're a bad bettor and a worse boyfriend...trying to cajole your girl into betting even one cent on the Lakers makes you a bad guy in general...ok, not that harsh, but man, even in the Sox $2mil bet, would you actually wager on the Yanks? C'mon, man...
You have to see it from the perspective of having been giving something for free. If I said, "I'll give you a box with either 0 or 400 dollars in it, OR, I'll give you 200 dollars," would you be a "bad bettor" for just taking 200 free dollars? No. If you wanted to take the risk, that's fine, too. (But that risk is not much of a risk, as you can't lose anything, you can only come out with the same zero you started with.)

It just seems like if you could make it so that you could get free money whether your team wins or loses, instead of just if they win, you should probably do that. It doesn't mean you're rooting for or really betting on the other team. You're just accepting less (less free money, at no risk to you) if they win in exchange for being able to still get something if they lose.

Would I bet any amount of money on the Yanks? Ever? No. If it was game 7, Yanks vs Sox, and the Sox team all got food poisoning, and all the single-A players had to come up and start, would I say "oh well I'm rooting for the Sox but I know they'll lose so I'll bet all this money on the Yanks?" Never. But this isn't the same as taking your own money and putting it up in hopes that the other team will win. It's just hedging the bet you already have on your own team to cover your ass if they lose. But not even "cover" your ass because you've risked nothing!

I told her about trying to parlay it-take some dough and bet on the Celts, then if they win, she gets a huge payday, but she won't do that! She won't risk one dime on them!
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"bad bettor"

You show me someone who says they are a good bettor and I will show you a liar.
Guaranteed at least 1 million? I'd run faster than Ellsbury to bet on the MFY!!! Are you effing kidding me??

Then I'd root like normal for the Sox, knowing that even if I feel like shit at the end of the ALCS, I still have 1 million bucks to ease the pain.

If the Yanks are going to win the series anyway, then I might as well pocket a cool million at the same time.
Hey, it makes sense to me. (You could still have a friend make the actual bet for you and give them a tip to take any thought of "I bet on the Yankees" out of your mind.)

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