Wednesday, January 26, 2005
Scientific Season Preview
I've been studying the Red Sox schedule that I have pinned up at work, daydreaming of summer days and stuffy car rides to Fenway. I think I might do Jacobs Field this year, and there's a weekend series in Philly. (Those bastards make you get up at SIX AM to buy tickets the day they go on sale.) By the way, I printed the "printable schedule" from redsox.com, and it's got problems. The opening yankee series according to it is Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday. And one game later in the year has two starting times listed. I was actually psyched, thinking there might be a good old-fashioed scheduled double-header. But after counting every single game (it's pretty slow at work), I realized they just put two times by mistake--neither of which was right according to the regular monthly schedule on the site.
So that's what I do at work.
Oh, right, so I quickly went through each series, keeping a tally in my head of how many games I "want" the Sox to win. I came up with 102. Then I wrote down the number of times we play each team, then did another in-head calculation of how many times we should beat each team. I came up with 92. My final step--follow closely, now--was to AVERAGE the two amounts. This is why I'm known as a genius. So I took that 97, added one, because while sometimes my autism says odd numbers are good, this time it told me to go with an even number, and I wasn't about to subtract a win. So, my early prediction, which I reserve the right to change daily, is 98-63. You'll notice that only adds up to 161 games. That's because I'm predicting a rain out against Baltimore which doesn't get made up. No, scratch that. 98-64. The new field will drain better, I can't be predicting any rain outs. And 64 is even.
I had been confused about the digging up of the Fenway field, and how it would affect the areas by the walls. (See some other post of mine from, I don't know, a month ago-ish.) I even heard some announcers saying how the walls will be higher since the field will be lower, so it wasn't just me. Well, there's an article on boston.com explaining it. I guess the two feet of digging is in the center of the infield. They're taking the crown out of the field, so it will be toatally flat. Funny how the article says they found old bottles under the field.
So that's what I do at work.
Oh, right, so I quickly went through each series, keeping a tally in my head of how many games I "want" the Sox to win. I came up with 102. Then I wrote down the number of times we play each team, then did another in-head calculation of how many times we should beat each team. I came up with 92. My final step--follow closely, now--was to AVERAGE the two amounts. This is why I'm known as a genius. So I took that 97, added one, because while sometimes my autism says odd numbers are good, this time it told me to go with an even number, and I wasn't about to subtract a win. So, my early prediction, which I reserve the right to change daily, is 98-63. You'll notice that only adds up to 161 games. That's because I'm predicting a rain out against Baltimore which doesn't get made up. No, scratch that. 98-64. The new field will drain better, I can't be predicting any rain outs. And 64 is even.
I had been confused about the digging up of the Fenway field, and how it would affect the areas by the walls. (See some other post of mine from, I don't know, a month ago-ish.) I even heard some announcers saying how the walls will be higher since the field will be lower, so it wasn't just me. Well, there's an article on boston.com explaining it. I guess the two feet of digging is in the center of the infield. They're taking the crown out of the field, so it will be toatally flat. Funny how the article says they found old bottles under the field.
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